The UNFCCC does not define ‘climate’ at all, while WMO says: 'climate' is average weather. This website will provide information and ask, does science know what climate is?
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IPCC WG I attempt to explain: "What is the relationship between
Climate Change and Weather?" Successfully?
B-205c
After having considered IPCC’s arbitrary use of the term ‘climate change’(B-205a), and the WG I explanation of ‘climate system’ (B-205b), we may now come to a particular interesting part of the 2007-Report, when WG I is trying to explain the FAQ: “What is the Relationship between Climate Change and Weather?” Don’t miss the WG I analogy on “ the average age of death for men” (at about the mid of the second box). It explains more than 1000 words.
It is interesting to note, that the FAQ does not offer to explain the term ‘climate’ in the first place, but offers immediately as topic: ‘climate change’ & weather. Consequently they should start their explanation with ‘climate change’, but they start with the sentence: “ Climate is generally defined as average weather” (see the box), which shows that sound reasoning seems not to be the strongest ability of the authors.
It is furthermore to note that the WG I answer to the FAQ is not compatible to their own Glossary[1] . The IPCC WG I definition on ‘climate’ is reproduced hereafter; concerning ‘climate change’ the reader is kindly requested to consult the IPCC Glossary, or have a look at: B-205a (see Collection of Material etc).
IPCC WGI, 2007, Annexes: (1) Glossary,
http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/wg1-report.html |
Climate in a narrow sense is usually defined as the average weather, or more rigorously, as the statistical description in terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities over a period of time ranging from months to thousands or millions of years. The classical period for averaging these variables is 30 years, as defined by the World Meteorological Organization. The relevant quantities are most often surface variables such as temperature, precipitation and wind.
Climate in a wider sense is the state, including a statistical description, of the climate system. In various chapters in this report different averaging periods, such as a period of 20 years, are also used. |
Extract from: IPCC-WGI, Historical Overview of Climate Change, page 95 - 122
HERE: Frequently Asked Question 1.2 (p.104)
What is the Relationship between Climate Change and Weather?
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Only WIC questions and WIC suggestions
‘to talk about’. |
Climate is generally defined as average weather, and as such, climate change and weather are intertwined. |
WIC: What is valid ‘Generally’ ‘usually’ (see above) or ‘often’[2]? |
Ditto
(…average weather, ..) |
WIC: What is average weather?
WIC: What is weather? (in a scientific sense, not what a layman would say) |
Ditto
(… and as such, climate change) |
WIC: Does saying ‘as such’ explains ‘climate change’? |
Ditto
(…. climate change and weather are intertwined) |
WIC: Makes it sense saying, “average weather change and weather are intertwined”? |
Ditto |
WIC: Has the sentence explained what ‘climate change‘ means? |
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Article 1
of UNFCCC defines |
"Climate change" means a change of climate, which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods. |
Observations can show that there have been changes in weather, (cont. next box) |
WIC: Too fizzy to ask questions |
and it is the statistics of changes in weather over time that identify climate change. |
WIC: What are ‘statistics of change in weather? |
ditto |
WIC: Can correctly calculated weather statistics change? |
ditto |
WIC: What ever shall be identified, is it not an ‘average weather change’? NOTE: Presumably the authors have specific changes in mind: concerning temperature, humidity, cloud cover. If that is the case, scientific research has to name them, as the word ‘climate’ does not explains anything in this respect. |
While weather and climate are closely related, there are important differences. |
WIC: Few sentences earlier we were advised that:
“ climate change and weather are intertwined” |
A common confusion between weather and climate arises when scientists are asked how they can predict climate 50 years from now when they cannot predict the weather a few weeks from now. |
WIC: Should science wonder about the confusion if they have no other definition for a layman’s term as: average weather?
WIC: Is confusion not inevitable? |
The chaotic nature of weather makes it unpredictable beyond a few days. Projecting changes in climate (i.e., long-term average weather) due to changes in atmospheric composition or other factors is a very different and much more manageable issue. |
WIC: Should physical law be called chaotic only because meteorology has not yet the information and means to predict weather much longer than 5 days[3] |
As an analogy, while it is impossible to predict the age at which any particular man will die, we can say with high confidence that the average age of death for men in industrialised countries is about 75. |
WIC: Can statistics die? Can weather, or average die?
WIC: Did FAQ-1 not explain that climate covers time periods ranging from months to millions of years (the classical period is 30 years)?
WIC: Does the nice analogy makes the ‘climate story’ comparable to the tale about “The Emperors new clothes”? |
Another common confusion of these issues is thinking that a cold winter or a cooling spot on the globe is evidence against global warming.
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WIC: Why do the author suddenly come up with ‘global warming’, which is about temperature rise? |
There are always extremes of hot and cold, although their frequency and intensity change as climate changes.
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But when weather is averaged over space and time, the fact that the globe is warming emerges clearly from the data.
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WIC: Since when is air temperature the same as weather? |
Meteorologists put a great deal of effort into observing, understanding and predicting the day-to-day evolution of weather systems.
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Using physics-based concepts that govern how the atmosphere moves, warms, cools, rains, snows, and evaporates water, meteorologists are typically able to predict the weather successfully several days into the future.
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WIC: If meteorologists need to use physics-based concepts, how can climatologists do without? |
A major limiting factor to the predictability of weather beyond several days is a fundamental dynamical property of the atmosphere. |
WIC: Is it not too narrow to mention only the ‘property of the atmosphere’.[4] |
The cited FAQ text passage in one piece
(left column): |
IPCC
Annexes: (1) Glossary, (2007) |
Climate is generally defined as average weather, and as such, climate change and weather are intertwined. Observations can show that there have been changes in weather, and it is the statistics of changes in weather over time that identify climate change. While weather and climate are closely related, there are important differences. A common confusion between weather and climate arises when scientists are asked how they can predict climate 50 years from now when they cannot predict the weather a few weeks from now. The chaotic nature of weather makes it unpredictable beyond a few days. Projecting changes in climate (i.e., long-term average weather) due to changes in atmospheric composition or other factors is a very different and much more manageable issue.
As an analogy, while it is impossible to predict the age at which any particular man will die, we can say with high confidence that the average age of death for men in industrialised countries is about 75. Another common confusion of these issues is thinking that a cold winter or a cooling spot on the globe is evidence against global warming. There are always extremes of hot and cold, although their frequency and intensity change as climate changes.
But when weather is averaged over space and time, the fact that the globe is warming emerges clearly from the data.
Meteorologists put a great deal of effort into observing, understanding and predicting the day-to-day evolution of weather systems. Using physics-based concepts that govern how the atmosphere moves, warms, cools, rains, snows, and evaporates water, meteorologists are typically able to predict the weather successfully several days into the future. A major limiting factor to the predictability of weather beyond several days is a fundamental dynamical property of the atmosphere. |
Climate in a narrow sense is usually defined as the average weather, or more rigorously, as the statistical description in terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities over a period of time ranging from months to thousands or millions of years. The classical period for averaging these variables is 30 years, as defined by the World Meteorological Organization. The relevant quantities are most often surface variables such as temperature, precipitation and wind.
Climate in a wider sense
is the state, including a statistical description, of the climate system. In various chapters in this report different averaging periods, such as a period of 20 years, are also used. |
Footnotes
[1] IPCC WGI, 2007, Annexes: (1)Glossary, http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/wg1-report.html
[2] NOTE: on page 95 IPCC says: climate is often defined as ‘average weather’.
[3] As technical comments at this place are not intended, reference is made to J.N. Carruthers (1941), mentioning a paper by C.F. Brooks, with the subsection titles: “Surface oceanography fundamental to world meteorology”, on following subjects: 1) The oceans as regulators of world weather. 2) The ocean and the planetary wind belts. 3) Seasonal abnormalities in centres of action; and 4) Ocean temperatures in seasonal weather forecasting. See: J.N. Carruthers, “Some Interrelationships of Meteorology and Oceanography”; Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorology Society, p.207-232;
[4] See: Roger A. Pielke Sr, saying in this first weblog: http://climatesci.colorado.edu/category/definition-of-climate on 29 July 2005 : If, however, we are interested in atmospheric and ocean circulation changes, which, afterall is what creates our weather, we need to focus on how humans are altering these circulations. Ocean heat content changes are the much more appropriate metric than a globally-averaged surface temperature when evaluating “global warming” in any case (http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-247.pdf).
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